Hygonomics is changing the labor market. Part 2: Reasoning for Stability and Freedom

The first part is here .

According to experts, in modern times of gigonomy, which involves the sharing of things, we will try our hand at a variety of different works, because modern technologies give us enough free time from 9 to 17. But these changes also carry anxiety, a sense of insecurity and low salaries.

Back in the 1930s, John Maynard Keynes suggested that the phrase “technological unemployment” would become a familiar part of the language. This phrase described "our discoveries, allowing more economical use of human labor, which have a higher pace than the search for new areas where this work can be involved." Or in other words, the way computers and robots drive us out of our workplaces. In a 2013 study by Oxford economists Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, an attempt was made to list those professions that were at highest risk. Of the 702 professions, almost half fell into the category of the highest risk of “potential automation”. Among them were almost all professions related to data, as well as with transport (in the wake of the imminent arrival of unmanned vehicles). I asked Frey if, in his opinion, the technologies of the sharing platforms that make possible temporary side jobs can mitigate this effect.

“People remain very attached to stable wages, but it seems to me that some of the companies have understood something very important. The development of sharing platforms gives people the opportunity to build a market on those skills that previously did not exist. ”

In his opinion, one of the results of this will undoubtedly be increased tension regarding salary issues for full-time employees and a decrease in the protection of working conditions. Frey does not believe that technology will necessarily provide the necessary solutions in some areas, even if they change the labor market.

He says: “Everything indicates that there will be fewer jobs, and the rationalization of labor will increase. If we look at the creation of new professions in recent decades, then in the 1980s there were 8.2% of new professions, in the 1990s - 4.4%, and in the 2000s - 0.5%. It is not at all necessary that an unemployed future awaits us. But it's hard for me to imagine which market sectors will appear to balance the loss of jobs. ”

Some of the most ardent adherents of the emerging “hymnomics” are convinced that this approach gives us a misconception about the problem. Robin Chase was a co-founder of Zipcar, a car rental company that was founded in 2000 and made it possible to book cars online. In his book Peers Inc, Robin reflects on this innovation and the many later-emerging sharing models, claiming that we are already experiencing a revolution.

She says the following: “My father had one job all his life, I have six, and my children will have six at the same time.” Does she think this is good? “It seems strange to me that we always advise companies to diversify their profit flows, but for individuals who are the most vulnerable and the smallest component of the economy, we say: you have to do one thing all your life. Living like that is crazy. 87% of people employed in regular jobs are not enthusiastic about what they do. When I think about this new way of working, I support it. It gives people economic strength, it makes them major. And that gives them flexibility. People like it all, ”says Robin.

“We realized that by inviting people from outside the company to work, we can grow our business faster.”

But such work gives them less confidence and protection, and potentially much more worries and anxieties, doesn’t it?

“We were taught to put reliability above self-realization and love of one’s own business,” says Chase. In any case, to object to this would be cunning. “In the United States, only 25% of the working-age population currently has a kind of full-time job with guarantees and compensation. We have already passed this model, and it will not come back. ”

But isn't gignomics just another way to cut costs and accumulate wealth in the hands of providers? “A lot of people are now trying to focus on the fact that in a sharing economy, employers are deceiving workers. However, if you look at the uneven distribution of income over the past 40 years, it becomes clear that the fact that employers are cheating on workers has nothing to do with the sharing economy, ”says Robin.

She hopes that the emerging platforms will allow them to develop a new openness and flexibility of thoughts, and Robin does not see any obstacles for them in any industry or services: “Traditionally, companies kept values ​​to themselves, protecting them with patents, trademarks and certificates. But thanks to the companies that provide services through the platforms, we realized that one of the ways of rapid growth is to attract people from outside. This is what BlaBaCar, Airbnb, Uber, YouTube, and Moocs have successfully promoted. They use an initiative that exists outside the company. This is a huge change in what brings value. ”

Writer and economist Jeremy Rifkin (Jeremy Rifkin) predicted this change in his book “The End of Work” (The End of Work), which was published in 1995. “Then standard economic theories claimed that new technologies would create more jobs than they would destroy. I did not believe in it, ”he told me. Rifkin believes that classical capitalism has already passed, and the economist is giving advice to the government, corporations and especially political leaders in Germany and China on how to counter the negative consequences. According to him, one of the main components will be a sharing economy or gignomika - what he calls the collective use of shared resources: “We live in an age of new communication technology, new energy sources and new vehicles. When these three components combine together,

And he believes that these changes have already become a reality for the millennium generation. “They already exist in a hybrid economic system,” he says. “Part of the day they will be in the capitalist markets, selling, buying and manufacturing things, balancing between real price and cost for profit. This will remain so. But part of the day they produce and share with each other a multitude of virtual goods at zero cost, for free. Look at the music industry. 16 years have passed since Napster. "People can create music at virtually zero cost and offer it to a billion potential listeners with zero direct costs."

Rifkin believes that the turmoil that has affected the entertainment, news, and publishing industries will soon become universal. He points out how millions of people in Europe and China are currently generating their own electricity with zero direct cost solar and wind energy and then selling its networks again. He believes that such a revolution will soon take place in the field of transport "with unmanned electric shering cars printed on a 3D printer."

In his opinion, many changes are associated with the transformation of the idea of ​​freedom. Talking about freedom, people of the older generation represent it as autonomy, independence, personal choice. “Freedom is exclusive rights and privileges.” When the younger generation thinks about freedom, then for them it no longer lies in exclusive rights and privileges, for them it is comprehensive. “The greater the number of networks in which they are members, the greater their social capital, the more free they feel,” he says. “It's about expanding the network. This is a sharing economy. ”

Although partly not a sad economic necessity has become the mother of all these inventions, all these millions of applications? The fact that in developed countries there is a gap between the ideas of generations about freedom also indicates clear differences in the resources and opportunities provided to these generations.

Rifkin likens gignomics to communal lands during feudalism. “This sharing economy is returning public ownership of the high-tech landscape. It begins when people create communities using their meager resources and sharing them with each other, while creating great value. If people are vouched for, if they are trusted, then they become part of the sharing economy group. If they behave improperly, they are excluded. Everything in this new economy depends on your social capital, ”he says.

In most of this future, it seems to me, there is a utopian meaning, but it is obvious that on the way to it we will encounter anxiety and pain. Rifkin formulated a plan for the European and Chinese government, which, in his opinion, should mitigate this pain. It includes “one last big surge in labor” to improve all buildings and homes so that they become micro-energy providers, and create an infrastructure that enables a digital, greener and more creative shared future. He believes that it will take 40 years.

“But of course I don’t think that all of this is fait accompli. But this is the best we can offer. I spent a lot of time with major entrepreneurs and the government. And here’s what I’m saying: do you have another plan for the future of your economy or the attraction of workers? They never have one. So plan B does not exist, ”he says.