Reflections on the staffing situation

    Somewhat succinctly - reflections on what is happening in the Russian IT processes, from the personnel side, as I see them for myself.

    First, the current situation.
    Now we have an overheated labor market on hand : there is much more work than there are specialists on hand. Hence the active hunting and some increase in salaries (strongly depends on the specific region and specialty, of course).

    Now let's look at what is happening in education.
    30% of students chose IT specialties in 2012 (I wonder what the statistics of 2013 will show).
    IT in general has become “fashionable," as it once was with economists and lawyers.
    Why did graduates choose IT? Apparently, like the fact that it’s “interesting, promising, innovative.” In addition, people go where the money is, parents tell the children - do it there, you will always be with the money.
    IT also works as a “social elevator” - it provides an opportunity, if desired, and the ability to rise to higher spheres, without having the money and the necessary connections.

    But back to education.
    I remember myself in my first year (20 years ago) - then people from our group of 15 dropped out a bit, the same thing happened in the neighboring groups. In a mathematical special group for a couple of years, two people remained at all. Those. in the first courses, teachers carried out a conscious "cleaning", among the students there were those who want and can study.
    Universities now cannot afford to conduct “cleanings,” screening out students and improving quality: the approach to financing has changed, and the nature of training has also changed with it.
    As a result, a further decrease in the quality of training of specialists.

    Another side of the issue.
    Overheated market leads to the fact that there is a transition to IT of people from other specialties. This is not bad and not good, this process has always been and is, but in the current conditions it is intensifying.

    What does all this mean for us those who are currently working in IT?
    In general, as a result of the popularity of the direction, in 2-3 years we will receive much more young specialists at the entrance - for the industry as a whole, this is good, filling the labor market with people should slow down the growth of salaries.
    I hope that this will allow Russian IT to remain in a favorable zone in relation to competitors in the global market.

    The change in the number will occur in parallel with a drop in the level of training of specialists “at the entrance” - it will fall and will continue to fall.
    Companies have to build the process of training specialists, create and develop “training centers”.

    Along with all this, we will also receive a change in the motivation of specialists : if earlier those who were really “calling,” who really needed it, went to IT, now the motives are somewhat different.
    It becomes less self-motivation, more focus on money, position and other benefits.

    For an increasing stream of new juniors, leads will be needed.
    Those who are now in the positions of "middle" should pay attention to the development of "soft skills" - managing people, peopleware - soon they will find application.
    Of course, among the “new shift” there will be those who want to quickly grow into leads and managers, without having the luggage of technical knowledge, which is fraught with a crisis of confidence.

    And last but not least, this factor can nullify the whole increase.
    We are overtaken by the “demographic pit” of the 1990s, when the birth rate has fallen drastically (the minimum is in 1998). In IT, the working age comes in the course of studying at a university - at about 20 years old. It turns out that we are already beginning to feel the impact of this fall, and the peak falls on about 2018.

    In general - the situation with personnel is certainly changing, for better or worse - time will tell.

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