Mathematics of management, with emoticons
Here is a small analysis, as a result of observations "from the inside" over the development of several very successful projects.
I’ll try to explain some of the basics of management using the example of the development of Internet projects using simple mathematics.
This post is written based on communication with a wonderful person named Yang. I wish you, Jan, a fast and truly dynamic development, and that you learn to overcome not only external but also internal obstacles in your career path.
The Pareto principle says: "20% of the effort brings 80% of the result." This pattern has a downside.
Often, people ignore the experience of their predecessors, naming some abstract causes of failure, but for some reason, with cold observation from the side, the results are always predictable.
Under the efforts in the work on the Internet project is meant:
There can be only one result! This is money.
The result may have other intermediate metrics. For example, the size of the project’s audience. Metrics can and should be influenced, and their development goal is set.
A document with a swollen structure is drawn up, usually a statement of work or a specification. Or the document is not written at all.
A huge amount of attention of managers and developers is devoted to the meticulous achievement of goals, covering specifications with implementation, reversing layout, design, and other fun tasks.
Let R be the expected result, in the amount of 10,000 units.
C - the costs of its achievement, in the estimated amount of 1000 units.
Thus, R = C * k, where k is the actual team work efficiency on the project.
In our case, k is planned to be equal to 10.
What actually happens with this approach?
80% of the result of R can be achieved with 20% of spending C. But the team does not see this - simply because the project is not started.
Instead, the time spent increases by 5 times. And, with it, respectively, financial costs increase.
If the project survives the opening, but gets 0.5-1 R. Rarely more.
Thus, the actual value k = (10000 * 0.5) / (1000 * 2 ... 5) = 2 ... 2.5.
More modest than expected, right? Under assumptions, this can be argued, but for some reason in practice it always turns out like this. Or even sadder - when the project does not open or stagnates without getting proper development.
It should be borne in mind that the costs should include not only the direct spending of money, but also the waste of time of all project participants.
Typically, leaders of such projects are outraged by competitors, “why did these upstarts do everything in a week? What do they think of themselves? Yes, newcomers are lucky ... ".
A document is prepared with a simple and clear structure. It can be very small, but if the team consists of more than 1 person, it is necessary. It is normal when this document is changed and supplemented in the process of work. The main thing is to keep old versions :)
Unlike the previous approach, here specific, but small and always clear goals are put on the agenda.
By analogy with the example above, let R be the expected result, in the amount of 1000 units. C - the costs of its achievement, in the estimated size of 500 units.
The planned efficiency is much less, see?
What does The Team do in this case. The goal is to achieve the set result as quickly as possible, and at low cost.
The goal is to launch a project. If the project is running, then get the fastest possible step in development. Not “do more” in one step, but make this step faster.
So what do we get?
Realizing only 20% of the costs, we get C = 100.
Getting 80% of the result, we have R = 800.
Hence, k = 8.
What does the manager do next? He receives the metrics from the quickly completed stage, and immediately plans the next stage. As a result, a series of several solutions passes.
Assume that some solutions were not effective, and lower the lower bar of the coefficients to 1.
R = ((C1 * k1) + (C2 * k2) + (C3 * k3) + (C3 * k3) + (C3 * k3)) * S
Substitute pseudo-real values.
R = ((100 * 1) + (100 * 8) + (100 * 5) + (100 * 2) + (100 * 8)) * 1.3 = 3120.
That is, we take economical steps, with different successes : not successful, very successful, quite successful, few successful, very successful.
The result obtained is more than 3 times higher than expected.
In a project with such a truly dynamic development, you can invest money without hesitation. And if the team maintains the pace of quick decision making, capital will also grow. During the quarter - at times.
And what is the coefficient S?
This is synergy. When decision-making is systematic, current plans are reviewed, short and quick-reaching tasks are set, on which results are immediately achieved - the karmic effect is triggered. This team, unlike the one described in the previous chapter, receives unexpected gifts from fate.
In fact, everything is simple - with loyalty to new opportunities and constant search, opportunities that were previously hidden from view are easily discovered. If you rest your forehead against one document - it is difficult to see what is happening on the sides. If you constantly observe and develop, then the possibilities are found by the businessman themselves.
Dear Yang, understand that it would be a smart decision to just go and find this thousand dollars. Get real results within a week, instead of stomping around from scratch for several months. There is no business without risk, simply because business is risk.
How to understand in which direction the project will move?
Again, observations from personal experience.
The first case. TK is “worked out”, but in fact, the author of the project is simply not able to spell out all his ideas. The documentation contains many spaces.
Output: if it is impossible to quickly and extremely clearly write down the plan, the volume of ideas should be reviewed. In the direction of simplification and acceleration. This affects efficiency, not imaginary details.
The second case. Some aspect or task of the project receives much more attention than the rest.
Treatment: look for opportunities to implement a project without this aspect or the solution to this problem. There are always options! Do not rest your forehead on the concept. We must reconsider it. No need to stupid and argue. Just do two projects. Yes, at least three! And develop them in parallel. This is much cheaper than you think =)
Third case: due to the solution of a problem, the discovery or development is delayed by more than 3 working days.
So before my eyes, a magnificent project, an online store of conceptual sporting goods, perished. For several months, the owner was looking for and communicating with lawyers on a very low-impact factor related to retail sales (the owner has extensive experience with B2B wholesale sales). All other work was done within a month.
In fact, there was a masked fear of a big step in a person’s life. Not jurisprudence, but psychology, and nothing more.
Tablet: use a calendar, organizer, anything - just to limit yourself and other participants in spending time. Accept intermediate results and move on. To develop and earn, and not dig, seek and successfully find new problems for yourself.
Thank you and good luck to everyone!
I’ll try to explain some of the basics of management using the example of the development of Internet projects using simple mathematics.
This post is written based on communication with a wonderful person named Yang. I wish you, Jan, a fast and truly dynamic development, and that you learn to overcome not only external but also internal obstacles in your career path.
Efforts vs. Result
The Pareto principle says: "20% of the effort brings 80% of the result." This pattern has a downside.
Often, people ignore the experience of their predecessors, naming some abstract causes of failure, but for some reason, with cold observation from the side, the results are always predictable.
Under the efforts in the work on the Internet project is meant:
- Money
- Time and power of leaders
- Time and effort of the involved project participants
There can be only one result! This is money.
The result may have other intermediate metrics. For example, the size of the project’s audience. Metrics can and should be influenced, and their development goal is set.
Waterfall business strategy
A document with a swollen structure is drawn up, usually a statement of work or a specification. Or the document is not written at all.
A huge amount of attention of managers and developers is devoted to the meticulous achievement of goals, covering specifications with implementation, reversing layout, design, and other fun tasks.
Let R be the expected result, in the amount of 10,000 units.
C - the costs of its achievement, in the estimated amount of 1000 units.
Thus, R = C * k, where k is the actual team work efficiency on the project.
In our case, k is planned to be equal to 10.
What actually happens with this approach?
80% of the result of R can be achieved with 20% of spending C. But the team does not see this - simply because the project is not started.
Instead, the time spent increases by 5 times. And, with it, respectively, financial costs increase.
If the project survives the opening, but gets 0.5-1 R. Rarely more.
Thus, the actual value k = (10000 * 0.5) / (1000 * 2 ... 5) = 2 ... 2.5.
More modest than expected, right? Under assumptions, this can be argued, but for some reason in practice it always turns out like this. Or even sadder - when the project does not open or stagnates without getting proper development.
It should be borne in mind that the costs should include not only the direct spending of money, but also the waste of time of all project participants.
Typically, leaders of such projects are outraged by competitors, “why did these upstarts do everything in a week? What do they think of themselves? Yes, newcomers are lucky ... ".
Agile in business
A document is prepared with a simple and clear structure. It can be very small, but if the team consists of more than 1 person, it is necessary. It is normal when this document is changed and supplemented in the process of work. The main thing is to keep old versions :)
Unlike the previous approach, here specific, but small and always clear goals are put on the agenda.
By analogy with the example above, let R be the expected result, in the amount of 1000 units. C - the costs of its achievement, in the estimated size of 500 units.
The planned efficiency is much less, see?
What does The Team do in this case. The goal is to achieve the set result as quickly as possible, and at low cost.
The goal is to launch a project. If the project is running, then get the fastest possible step in development. Not “do more” in one step, but make this step faster.
So what do we get?
Realizing only 20% of the costs, we get C = 100.
Getting 80% of the result, we have R = 800.
Hence, k = 8.
What does the manager do next? He receives the metrics from the quickly completed stage, and immediately plans the next stage. As a result, a series of several solutions passes.
Assume that some solutions were not effective, and lower the lower bar of the coefficients to 1.
R = ((C1 * k1) + (C2 * k2) + (C3 * k3) + (C3 * k3) + (C3 * k3)) * S
Substitute pseudo-real values.
R = ((100 * 1) + (100 * 8) + (100 * 5) + (100 * 2) + (100 * 8)) * 1.3 = 3120.
That is, we take economical steps, with different successes : not successful, very successful, quite successful, few successful, very successful.
The result obtained is more than 3 times higher than expected.
In a project with such a truly dynamic development, you can invest money without hesitation. And if the team maintains the pace of quick decision making, capital will also grow. During the quarter - at times.
And what is the coefficient S?
This is synergy. When decision-making is systematic, current plans are reviewed, short and quick-reaching tasks are set, on which results are immediately achieved - the karmic effect is triggered. This team, unlike the one described in the previous chapter, receives unexpected gifts from fate.
In fact, everything is simple - with loyalty to new opportunities and constant search, opportunities that were previously hidden from view are easily discovered. If you rest your forehead against one document - it is difficult to see what is happening on the sides. If you constantly observe and develop, then the possibilities are found by the businessman themselves.
Dear Yang, understand that it would be a smart decision to just go and find this thousand dollars. Get real results within a week, instead of stomping around from scratch for several months. There is no business without risk, simply because business is risk.
At the pharmacy
How to understand in which direction the project will move?
Again, observations from personal experience.
The first case. TK is “worked out”, but in fact, the author of the project is simply not able to spell out all his ideas. The documentation contains many spaces.
Output: if it is impossible to quickly and extremely clearly write down the plan, the volume of ideas should be reviewed. In the direction of simplification and acceleration. This affects efficiency, not imaginary details.
The second case. Some aspect or task of the project receives much more attention than the rest.
Treatment: look for opportunities to implement a project without this aspect or the solution to this problem. There are always options! Do not rest your forehead on the concept. We must reconsider it. No need to stupid and argue. Just do two projects. Yes, at least three! And develop them in parallel. This is much cheaper than you think =)
Third case: due to the solution of a problem, the discovery or development is delayed by more than 3 working days.
So before my eyes, a magnificent project, an online store of conceptual sporting goods, perished. For several months, the owner was looking for and communicating with lawyers on a very low-impact factor related to retail sales (the owner has extensive experience with B2B wholesale sales). All other work was done within a month.
In fact, there was a masked fear of a big step in a person’s life. Not jurisprudence, but psychology, and nothing more.
Tablet: use a calendar, organizer, anything - just to limit yourself and other participants in spending time. Accept intermediate results and move on. To develop and earn, and not dig, seek and successfully find new problems for yourself.
Thank you and good luck to everyone!