September 8, 2008 at 14:33What to expect from Google in the next 10 years
On September 7, Google celebrated its first anniversary . No corporation in the history of mankind has ever achieved such commercial success in the first ten years of its existence. It remains only to speculate what will happen next and what it will turn into by 2018. EWeek magazine writes about the prospects for Chrome, Android and OpenSocial, as well as life in the era of the mobile web.
The Chrome War
A day after its release, Google Chrome gained 1% of the global browser market . What happens if more and more users start switching from IE to Chrome? Journalists and bloggers like to say that Chrome will become an alternative to Windows, but de facto you cannot launch this browser without an operating system.
However, webmail, an online text editor and other office applications will gain in popularity. Business, too, will eventually begin a massive transition to the Google infrastructure. Small business started it now. When large enterprises begin to be hosted on Google servers, the Internet Explorer browser will simply become irrelevant. Everyone will use Chrome and Google Docs.
What will happen to Microsoft?
Of course, Microsoft will try to regain the position of Windows, promoting the Live Mesh platform and intensifying its attempts to conquer the mobile device platform, but, as experts say , the Redmond giant is far behind.
Chrome comes to Android
Sergey Brin said that Chrome and Android are made for each other. They havegeneral WebKit , and if the same ultrafast script processing engine is implemented on mobile phones, this will be a real revolution in the field of mobile web applications.
This is what Google will do in the next few years, and not without success. You can expect the start of real competition with the Apple iPhone.
Nokia and other manufacturers will continue to manufacture mobile phones, but Google software and the same Chrome will work as software on them. The share of Windows Mobile will begin to decline.
By promoting Chrome and Android, Google will be able to significantly improve the situation with its revenue sources, which are now almost 100% dependent on contextual advertising.
OpenSocial, YouTube
OpenSocial is becoming an increasingly common technology as programmers increasingly use open APIs to create their own applications.
From a financial point of view, this technology will not bring profit to Google, but it is important for the consolidation of the user base. True, in the social media advertising market, Google will not be able to compete with Facebook. Just as Google has ousted all competitors from the contextual advertising market, so Facebook will eventually oust all competitors from the advertising market on social networks.
Google, however, will take its toll on the image advertising market. With the help of its YouTube service, it will begin to seize a share of this market from Yahoo (or Microhoo).
2018
Actively developing the promising areas of Chrome, Android and Google Apps with a highly profitable contextual advertising business, Google is becoming the main provider of web applications serving both private users and business, thanks to its distributed computing platform and stability.
However, Microsoft will not give up positions in any way. Although its presence on the web will remain relatively small, Windows will improve and, despite media forecasts, it will remain the most popular desktop operating system. If now she has 85-95%, then in ten years about 60% will remain.
However, by 2018 this may not be as important as it is now, since so many users simply will not have personal computers. By then, smartphones, including BlackBerry, iPhone and Android, will become so advanced that they can be used as a full-fledged alternative to PCs and laptops.
In the end, we will recall 2008 as the first year that Google began to seriously undermine Microsoft's attempts to bring its business to the Internet .
At the same time, by 2018, Facebook and other sites will begin to threaten Google’s business in ways we cannot imagine now.
The Chrome War
A day after its release, Google Chrome gained 1% of the global browser market . What happens if more and more users start switching from IE to Chrome? Journalists and bloggers like to say that Chrome will become an alternative to Windows, but de facto you cannot launch this browser without an operating system.
However, webmail, an online text editor and other office applications will gain in popularity. Business, too, will eventually begin a massive transition to the Google infrastructure. Small business started it now. When large enterprises begin to be hosted on Google servers, the Internet Explorer browser will simply become irrelevant. Everyone will use Chrome and Google Docs.
What will happen to Microsoft?
Of course, Microsoft will try to regain the position of Windows, promoting the Live Mesh platform and intensifying its attempts to conquer the mobile device platform, but, as experts say , the Redmond giant is far behind.
Chrome comes to Android
Sergey Brin said that Chrome and Android are made for each other. They havegeneral WebKit , and if the same ultrafast script processing engine is implemented on mobile phones, this will be a real revolution in the field of mobile web applications.
This is what Google will do in the next few years, and not without success. You can expect the start of real competition with the Apple iPhone.
Nokia and other manufacturers will continue to manufacture mobile phones, but Google software and the same Chrome will work as software on them. The share of Windows Mobile will begin to decline.
By promoting Chrome and Android, Google will be able to significantly improve the situation with its revenue sources, which are now almost 100% dependent on contextual advertising.
OpenSocial, YouTube
OpenSocial is becoming an increasingly common technology as programmers increasingly use open APIs to create their own applications.
From a financial point of view, this technology will not bring profit to Google, but it is important for the consolidation of the user base. True, in the social media advertising market, Google will not be able to compete with Facebook. Just as Google has ousted all competitors from the contextual advertising market, so Facebook will eventually oust all competitors from the advertising market on social networks.
Google, however, will take its toll on the image advertising market. With the help of its YouTube service, it will begin to seize a share of this market from Yahoo (or Microhoo).
2018
Actively developing the promising areas of Chrome, Android and Google Apps with a highly profitable contextual advertising business, Google is becoming the main provider of web applications serving both private users and business, thanks to its distributed computing platform and stability.
However, Microsoft will not give up positions in any way. Although its presence on the web will remain relatively small, Windows will improve and, despite media forecasts, it will remain the most popular desktop operating system. If now she has 85-95%, then in ten years about 60% will remain.
However, by 2018 this may not be as important as it is now, since so many users simply will not have personal computers. By then, smartphones, including BlackBerry, iPhone and Android, will become so advanced that they can be used as a full-fledged alternative to PCs and laptops.
In the end, we will recall 2008 as the first year that Google began to seriously undermine Microsoft's attempts to bring its business to the Internet .
At the same time, by 2018, Facebook and other sites will begin to threaten Google’s business in ways we cannot imagine now.