Ilon Musk about the reality simulator in which we live, about the political structure of Mars and the future Apple cars
On June 1, Ilon Mask took part in the Code Conference, one of the major IT conferences. In his speech, he touched on several interesting topics, answering questions from the public and presenters from Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher. We publish some excerpts, full interview here ( text translation ).
Tesla Model 3
Despite the stories with delays of previous models, the new Model 3 worth $ 35 thousand will hit the market by the set deadline in 2017. The car project will be completed in about 6 weeks. "Almost all the work on the design of Model 3 is completed, and we intend to complete it in about six weeks." After that, the engineers are going to add "cool features" to an existing model, that is, there will be "version 2", "version 3", etc.
Ilon Musk admitted that one of the many reasons for the delays of the Model X was “arrogance”: engineers tried to introduce too many new technologies into a single model. Sales of the Model X did not start as quickly as we would like, due to quality problems and with hinged doors of the type “falcon wings”.
In the case of Model 3, it was decided to postpone some of the most daring innovations for future versions.
Musk said that the big premiere of Model 3 will be held at the end of 2016 . At the moment, more than 400,000 pre-orders for the car have been received.
When asked about the availability of the autopilot function in the Model 3, Ilon Musk did not answer anything concrete: “We will do the obvious thing.”
Competition with Google and Apple cars
Ilon Mask is closely watching competitors, but believes that Google is not a car company. It is unlikely that she will release her own car to the market. According to him, the business model of Google involves more technology licensing to other companies, as is done in the case of Android.
Another thing is Apple, which is developing its own car in the European Science and Technology Center, so Tesla’s competition with Apple “will be more direct”.
At the same time, Ilon Mask believes that Apple has not even close created the infrastructure necessary for mass production of cars. “I don’t think they will start mass production before 2020,” he said. - This is a missed opportunity. There are a dozen more or less large auto companies in the world, and the largest of them has a market share of only about 10%. ”
Artificial Intelligence
Previously, Musk expressed his concerns about the excessive development of AI. Now he is concerned about “only one” technology company that conducts research in this area. To the clarifying question, is this a company that will soon enter the automotive market (Google), Ilon Musk repeated: “Only one”.
In his speech, Musk once again recalled the reasons for the founding of the non-commercial foundation Open AI. It must protect people and confront the threat of artificial intelligence if it becomes a danger, being in the hands of corporations that are seeking commercial gain. “I know a little people who would like to live under the rule of a despot,” said Ilon Musk, talking about the negative development scenario of AI. “We are just trying to increase the likelihood that the future will be good.”
Cyborgs
“We are already cyborg,” said Ilon Musk. - You have a digital version of yourself, a partial version of the self online in the form of your emails, your social media and all your actions. [Thanks to modern technology] you have more opportunities than the President of the United States twenty years ago. You can get an answer to any question, arrange a videoconference with anyone, anywhere. You can send messages to millions of people at the same time. Just incredible things. ” And this is just the beginning.
The only limitation that keeps cyborgs people from further progress is limiting the bandwidth of the I / O interface, that is, the brain-computer bus. If a person does not overcome this limitation, then he will fall into a strong dependence on AI: “If you assume any pace of progress in research on artificial intelligence, we are left behind anyway. Strong behind. ” The difference in intelligence will be enormous. Ilon Musk believes that with a favorable course of events, people will become something of a “pet” in their computer “owners,” like domestic cats and dogs. We will love, cherish and fulfill almost any of our desires. This is a favorable course of events.
The only way out is to connect people to the AI directly via brain interfaces [Perhaps a collective mind modeled on the Borg].
Baby Borgov, who was watched by Commander Riker in 2365 (Star Trek's NF-series): presumably, he received the first implants immediately after birth
Reality simulator
Ilon Musk mentioned the threat to humanity in the event of a nuclear war or a cataclysm that would destroy all life. In this case, the only hope is that we are now living in a simulator indistinguishable from reality. In this case, it can be restarted. “Either we will create simulators indistinguishable from reality, or civilization will cease to exist,” said Musk.
“Years ago we had“ Ping-pong ”- two rectangles and a dot. Such were the games. Forty years later, we have photorealistic 3D simulators that millions of people play at the same time, and they get better every year. Soon we will have a virtual reality, augmented reality.
If at least some rate of improvement will be maintained, the games will soon cease to differ from reality. Even if it happens at a speed that is a thousand times smaller than it is now, this moment will come in 10 thousand years, which by the standards of evolution is nothing.
If the games ever become indistinguishable from reality, they will be available on any computer, console or whatever will be there in the future, and there will be billions of such devices, then the chance that we will remain in the same reality will be one in a billion. And tell me, what's wrong with that? ”
Flight Mask into Orbit
On the question of whether Ilon himself was in space, does not want to fly there somehow, Musk replied that he was going to Earth orbit in four to five years.
Colony on mars
Ilon Musk devotes a lot of his time to the project of the Martian colony, so he shared his assumptions about how society will be organized on the second planet of the human race.
According to Ilon, the most likely form of government on Mars will be direct democracy, not representative, as in most states on Earth. On various issues, people will vote directly, and not to shift the decision to the deputies. Ilon Mask believes that this form of government is better because it reduces the opportunities for corruption.
He also proposed the idea of reducing the “inertia of legislation”, so that repealing a law would be easier than adopting it. If for the adoption of the law, 60% of the votes of citizens are needed, then for its abolition (if the law was bad) - only 40%. In addition, to reduce the inertia of outdated laws, each law should be adopted with an expiry date. On the due date, another vote takes place.
Probably, so many ideas about the political structure of the Martian society arose from Mask because he was not entirely satisfied with the existing state of affairs on Earth. For example, regarding the current presidential race in the United States, he said that he was trying to “stay away from this situation” and did not consider this “the best moment for our democracy.” He only noticed that whoever came to the presidency, fortunately, his powers are very limited by the Constitution, so that he cannot do much harm.
Regarding the delivery of people to Mars by the current Dragon rockets, Ilon Musk spoke negatively, because in this case people will have to spend more than a year in cramped conditions: places in the ship are like in the cabin of an SUV. Plus, this is a one way ticket.
According to the plan, SpaceX will be able to normally and comfortably send people to Mars in 2024 with the arrival in 2025. There are only eight years left, so no need to hurry.