What happened in the world of finance for week # 9

    Hi Geektimes! We continue to publish reports on major events in the world of finance and the stock market. Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina / RBC The previous issue of the information digest can be found here .

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    Forex markets


    Last week began with a decrease in the country's credit rating by S&P agency to the “garbage” one and the subsequent fall of the ruble - in the middle of the week, the euro was trading at a mark above 77 rubles, and the dollar exceeded 69 rubles.

    On Friday, January 30, the Central Bank announced a reduction in the key rate by 2 percentage points - from 17% to 15% per annum. According to Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, this was done because the authorities managed to slow down the fall of the ruble. The Minister said that the ruble is now " equilibrium ." The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that a rate of 15% is sufficient to slow inflation.

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    Fotobank / Getty Images

    Here is how ITinvest Chief Economist Sergey Egishyants commented on this decision in his weekly review :

    The Bank of Russia suddenly reduced its key rate by 2% to 15% - the explanation is that inflation will fall due to weak demand and a growing credit collapse. It is logical, but such a state of affairs was also in December - however, the percentage then shot up: they raised it not because of prices, but because of the ruble - meanwhile, the latter still does not grow to put it mildly. Wanted to help the real sector? - but for him that 15%, that 17%, in general, about the same thing: the beyond. Therefore, it is not easy to understand the logic of the Central Bank - therefore, the market is scared: in October-December, he saw a confusion of power turning into a panic (that is why the ruble was torn off the roof on December 16) - recently everything seemed to calm down, but now a new strange decision has come.

    Immediately after the announcement of the news about the reduction of the key rate on the exchange, there was another jump in the dollar and euro rates - the US currency went up to 71.8 rubles. (3 rubles higher than the close of the previous day), and the euro - up to 81.55 rubles. (3.875 rubles higher than the previous day's closing level).

    Such movements were not embarrassed by representatives of the authorities - the first deputy chairman of the government, Igor Shuvalov, advised the Russians to get used to the unstable ruble exchange rate (earlier, at a forum in Davos, he announced that the current crisis would be more serious than in 2008). In support of this, the Ministry of Economic Development announced a forecast for the level of decline in the Russian economy - according to experts of the department, the decrease will be 3%.

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    Photo: News.Mail.ru

    A new week began on the exchange with a drop in the ruble exchange rate - and the dollar and the euro took levels above Friday's close. Even the news of rising oil prices did not help the Russian currency: the Brent brand traded most of last week at $ 48-49 per barrel, but during the last January trading, the price rose sharply, exceeding a maximum of $ 53 per barrel. On Monday at ICE, the price of Brent futures for March delivery is between $ 51 and $ 52 per barrel.

    Sergey Yeghishyants described the situation on the oil market as follows:

    Oil and gas continued to stand at the bottom, despite the widening decline in wells in the USA and the complaints of OPEC Secretary General Al-Badri, they say, if now everyone stops investing because of cheapness, then in a couple of years the price can skyrocket up to 200 bucks per barrel; at the same time, the head of Goldman Sachs Cohn (himself a former oil trader) promises soon 30. It seems to us that there will be bottoms before the end of the first quarter - after which there will be a pretty peppy rebound: how peppy it depends on the resulting lows - let's wait a bit although it may not have to wait, because at the close of the month, oil soared vertically.

    According to analysts at Bloomberg, the ruble, quite possibly, has not yet reached the bottom and may continue to fall.

    Stock markets


    Last week's start on the Russian stock market went in a negative way. The MICEX ruble index lost within 2%, while the RTS currency index sank almost 4%.

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    Photo: Sergey Karpukhin / Reuters

    ITinvest expert Vasily Oleynik called aggravation of the situation in Ukraine and growth of geopolitical risks among the reasons for investors' anxiety:

    [...] The conclusion is that February will not be the best month for investors, therefore, it is clearly not worth rushing into long-term purchases now.

    The week, however, the main Russian stock indices closed in different directions - the MICEX added 0.5% to 1647.69 points, the RTS index fell 1.4% to 737.35 points.

    Forecasts for 2015

    RBC-TV economic observer Zhanna Nemtsova discussed with the head of investor relations at PJSC Severstal Vladimir Zaluzhsky the situation in the markets of metallurgists and exporters, a new cycle in the commodity market and forecasts for its development, as well as the possibility of buying Eurobonds, including number for a wide range of investors on the Moscow Exchange



    That's all for today, thanks for watching. More analytical materials from leading experts on the ITinvest website .

    PS If you notice a typo, a broken link or other inaccuracy, write us a personal message and we will quickly fix it.

    PPS We already wrote that the St. Petersburg Exchange has the opportunity to buy shares of foreign companies (Google, Facebook, recently Alibaba , etc.). Tomorrow (February 3) an online conference will be held, during which representatives of the Exchange and ITinvest will answer all questions on this topic. The broadcast will be available on the site at the link .

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