January 4, 2012 at 11:17Amazon conquers, Patch dies, media that only works on Facebook appears, and other predictions for 2012
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Editor’s Note: We end 2011 with a survey of the most sensible experts in journalism. Below are their forecasts regarding the media business, journalism, various sites in 2012. The list includes: Brian Boer , Rick Edmonds , Kevin Kelly , Joy Mayer , Alan Murray , Alan Mutter , Geneva Overheader , Howard Owens and Sri Shrinivasan . The entire list of our publications on this topic can be found here .
What will bring 2012? More adequate sites instead of branded applications for different platforms, new products that will be sharpened not for desktops, but for mobile devices and tablets, a new term that will combine mobile / tablets / handheld / sofa devices, and a huge number of flying video cameras ... Just everything that I am doing now. It will be a fun year.
I hate to be boring, giving obvious forecasts, but in 2012 and possibly in 2013 I do not expect anything particularly new. Problems with advertising revenues will continue, although the general hysteria in connection with the transition to digital may probably subside due to improvements in the economy. The digital revolution in the newspapers is a long business, so I will be surprised if 2012 is a year of breakthrough. You can definitely say that paid access to content and package subscriptions will gain momentum. Many may refuse a paper version or home delivery on certain days of the week, but it is unlikely that they will be delivered from the other at once.
You know, I have long been concerned that cuts, which will be many more, can greatly reduce the reporting capacity of many media outlets. As Pulitzer Prize winner Glen Frankel said in an interview with John Templea few years ago: “If we have nothing to say, nothing to do as journalists, then we do not need new technologies. We don’t have to be at all. We will never be. ”
E-books will continue to grow like mushrooms, Amazon will prevail over paper publishing, Google+ will become a channel with the possibility of making money, tablets with touch-screens will lose their sharpness, streaming TV will begin to overshadow the broadcast, games will try to make a news delivery tool, and the first will truly open successful media that will work exclusively within Facebook.
News will increasingly become a conversational format, rather than a simple sequence of reporting.
In 2012, the gap will increase between journalists who specifically monitor and serve the needs of the audience, and those who continue to work the old fashioned way, relying on their own ideas about its needs. Sorry, but I can not say anything particularly optimistic about the crumbling standards. On the contrary, I’m going to follow examples of new formats where the news will be a developing dialogue, and not a cycle of unilateral journalistic reporting. In an election year, it is especially important to be responsive to the information needs of users and participate in discussions.
The printed word and video will continue to merge. With the advent of new technologies, it makes no sense for a good reporter to limit himself to paper. It makes no sense in television reporters who simply shoot.
The popularity of iPads will make news sites more readable, easier to see, and less clumsy.
Mobile topics, relevant in the past year, will remain relevant in this. The best media will find new ways to deliver content on smartphones.
In 2012, the best coverage of the elections for the first time will be done by those media that give priority to the digital (Internet - approx. Translator) .
Sorry Siri, but I don’t think that in 2012 people will start talking to their newspapers and websites. Maybe next year.
In the new year, large technology companies will follow small publishing and broadcasting companies like never before. Many regional companies did not even dream about what awaited them. As discussed on my blog , here's what to expect in 2012 and beyond:
Socially significant information will increase in volume, the number of its sources will grow from individual individuals to organizations of various kinds. Conclusions and results of the analysis of this information for society will not be obvious. Generating different feelings and thoughts in some, she leaves others at a loss, inability to determine who to trust, and what to believe. Communities will come to the conclusion that reliable and complete information about what is happening is a public good that needs their support. Discussions on the future of journalism will be enriched by a wider range of opinions; they will be held in more places and at different venues.
Traditional media companies will continue to try to innovate from above, but will not be very successful. Passive resistance in them will continue to hold on to progress. Many newspapers will introduce paid access to their content. And some of them will find that they are competing with online news startups.
The income of all newspapers will decrease, even if the economy begins to grow.
The business will be unstable, but the business model will evolve.
The Patch project will not survive this year.
The fall of Patch will strengthen the long-known truth among opinion leaders: “You see! We said: hyperlocal media cannot build a viable business model. ”
But in the meantime, individual local companies will continue to struggle for survival, gradually increasing the viability of their business.
The number of independent online publishers in the United States will double in 2012. We do not have accurate data on how many regional Internet news companies exist on the market, but this segment will continue to grow.
I am very optimistic about the media scene in 2012. Although there will still be a lot of concern on the market about possible and actual layoffs and tightening belts in newspapers and on TV, many new web projects will appear. My boss Nick Lehman, Dean of Columbia University School of Journalism , often says that the future of journalism is "digital and highly specialized." This trend is definitely more pronounced in 2012. Journalists who already know how to work with numbers should take advantage of new opportunities or find a way to use their skills in a new way to really shine.
Last prediction: I hope I'm mistaken, but I think they will ask me for the Nth time after some regular hype in the news: “Have social media finally ripened?”
Brian Boer
What will bring 2012? More adequate sites instead of branded applications for different platforms, new products that will be sharpened not for desktops, but for mobile devices and tablets, a new term that will combine mobile / tablets / handheld / sofa devices, and a huge number of flying video cameras ... Just everything that I am doing now. It will be a fun year.
Rick Edmonds
I hate to be boring, giving obvious forecasts, but in 2012 and possibly in 2013 I do not expect anything particularly new. Problems with advertising revenues will continue, although the general hysteria in connection with the transition to digital may probably subside due to improvements in the economy. The digital revolution in the newspapers is a long business, so I will be surprised if 2012 is a year of breakthrough. You can definitely say that paid access to content and package subscriptions will gain momentum. Many may refuse a paper version or home delivery on certain days of the week, but it is unlikely that they will be delivered from the other at once.
You know, I have long been concerned that cuts, which will be many more, can greatly reduce the reporting capacity of many media outlets. As Pulitzer Prize winner Glen Frankel said in an interview with John Templea few years ago: “If we have nothing to say, nothing to do as journalists, then we do not need new technologies. We don’t have to be at all. We will never be. ”
Kevin Kelly
E-books will continue to grow like mushrooms, Amazon will prevail over paper publishing, Google+ will become a channel with the possibility of making money, tablets with touch-screens will lose their sharpness, streaming TV will begin to overshadow the broadcast, games will try to make a news delivery tool, and the first will truly open successful media that will work exclusively within Facebook.
Joy Mayer
News will increasingly become a conversational format, rather than a simple sequence of reporting.
In 2012, the gap will increase between journalists who specifically monitor and serve the needs of the audience, and those who continue to work the old fashioned way, relying on their own ideas about its needs. Sorry, but I can not say anything particularly optimistic about the crumbling standards. On the contrary, I’m going to follow examples of new formats where the news will be a developing dialogue, and not a cycle of unilateral journalistic reporting. In an election year, it is especially important to be responsive to the information needs of users and participate in discussions.
Alan Murray
The printed word and video will continue to merge. With the advent of new technologies, it makes no sense for a good reporter to limit himself to paper. It makes no sense in television reporters who simply shoot.
The popularity of iPads will make news sites more readable, easier to see, and less clumsy.
Mobile topics, relevant in the past year, will remain relevant in this. The best media will find new ways to deliver content on smartphones.
In 2012, the best coverage of the elections for the first time will be done by those media that give priority to the digital (Internet - approx. Translator) .
Sorry Siri, but I don’t think that in 2012 people will start talking to their newspapers and websites. Maybe next year.
Alan Mutter
In the new year, large technology companies will follow small publishing and broadcasting companies like never before. Many regional companies did not even dream about what awaited them. As discussed on my blog , here's what to expect in 2012 and beyond:
- Google already knows everything about the streets from Portland to New York to successfully sell ads and directory directories for small and medium-sized businesses. Small and medium-sized businesses are the last support for local newspapers and directories.
- Amazon has long been ripe for crowding out local stores and supermarkets, as it did in the book trade. Main Street and Big Mall are the largest advertisers in local newspapers, local radio stations, and TV. If Amazon and other digital competitors outperform local sellers, regional media will suffer along with them.
- This month, Microsoft was successful in gradually splitting the regional broadcast and cable TV audience by starting to provide access to Netflix and ESPN through its Xbox game consoles. We have yet to hear about Apple's successes in this field. When Apple, Google, Sony, Netflix, or anyone else makes the right Internet TV — and someone does it for sure — the local on-air and cable TV audiences will disappear. The same thing will happen with their business model.
- Facebook has not collected the budgets of regional advertisers. Till. But the infectious Jacobism (egocentricity, personalization - approx. Translator) of its content penetrates deeper and deeper into the minds of the audience of all traditional media. And the advertiser will follow the audience - this is an axiom. There is not a single regional media company that can compete with the breadth of coverage and the fineness of customizing Facebook's advertising capabilities. As the younger generation enters the business, they will increasingly turn to the possibilities of Facebook, looking for customers among friends and friends of their friends. A simple comparison of advertising prices with local media is not at all in favor of the latter.
Geneva Oversight
Socially significant information will increase in volume, the number of its sources will grow from individual individuals to organizations of various kinds. Conclusions and results of the analysis of this information for society will not be obvious. Generating different feelings and thoughts in some, she leaves others at a loss, inability to determine who to trust, and what to believe. Communities will come to the conclusion that reliable and complete information about what is happening is a public good that needs their support. Discussions on the future of journalism will be enriched by a wider range of opinions; they will be held in more places and at different venues.
Howard Owens
Traditional media companies will continue to try to innovate from above, but will not be very successful. Passive resistance in them will continue to hold on to progress. Many newspapers will introduce paid access to their content. And some of them will find that they are competing with online news startups.
The income of all newspapers will decrease, even if the economy begins to grow.
The business will be unstable, but the business model will evolve.
The Patch project will not survive this year.
The fall of Patch will strengthen the long-known truth among opinion leaders: “You see! We said: hyperlocal media cannot build a viable business model. ”
But in the meantime, individual local companies will continue to struggle for survival, gradually increasing the viability of their business.
The number of independent online publishers in the United States will double in 2012. We do not have accurate data on how many regional Internet news companies exist on the market, but this segment will continue to grow.
Sri Srinivasan
I am very optimistic about the media scene in 2012. Although there will still be a lot of concern on the market about possible and actual layoffs and tightening belts in newspapers and on TV, many new web projects will appear. My boss Nick Lehman, Dean of Columbia University School of Journalism , often says that the future of journalism is "digital and highly specialized." This trend is definitely more pronounced in 2012. Journalists who already know how to work with numbers should take advantage of new opportunities or find a way to use their skills in a new way to really shine.
Last prediction: I hope I'm mistaken, but I think they will ask me for the Nth time after some regular hype in the news: “Have social media finally ripened?”